The Jan 2017 Aspen Snowmass Real Estate Monthly Market Snapshot has been postedinCurrent Reports.The Monthly Snapshots are usually posted on or near the 1st Monday of the month. The Q4 and Year 2016 report will be released soon.
Anarticleappeared in the Denver Post yesterday, Sunday, on the Colorado Mountain resort real estate including Aspen and Pitkin County.
Bottom Line
The Jan 2017 Aspen real estate market* is up 33% in unit sales and 117% in dollar volume over Jan 2016. But in Jan ‘16, the stock market was plummeting and the local real estate market went deep south. The year-to-year comparison is from a low base. Current sales are approximately 50% better than Jan 2016 and 50% less than a sizzling Jan 2015 – we’re in the middle of the past two years of performance.
Post Nov.‘16 election sales finally started picking up relative to the dismal 1st Half of 2016 caused by paralyzing political uncertainty. Sales continue to be on the rise now.
Of particular note, in Jan 2017 the number of under contracts (UC’s)/pendings exceeded Jan 2016 by 142%, (29) now versus (12) then. UC’s – properties that are have gone under contract but not yet closed (and may not)– are viewed as an indicator of future activity.
*In Jan 2017, Aspen unit and dollar sales represent 67% of total Aspen and SMV combined sales.Typically, they represent 70-80% of total combined sales.
New Charts: Historic Pace of Aspen and Snowmass Village Homes, Condos and Vacant Land / Lots by Dollar Sales and Unit Sales
These new charts were posted inCurrent Reportson 02/15/17.They are: the historic pace of dollar and unit sales since 2006 with trend lines for Aspen and Snowmass Village (SMV) separately by: 1) all properties combined; 2) single family homes; 3) condos; 4) vacant land / lots. (Fractionals, with the exception of extreme sales, are not included.)
Sales velocity, or pace, whether by dollar volume or unit sales is extremely useful to consider ss the unit sales drop-off in the 2nd Half 2007 so foreshadowed the Great Recession.
While many real estate professionals use dollar volume sales as the single metric for sales performance (it often looks ‘better’), unit sales are a better measure of market activity. Dollar sales can be skewed disproportionately by extreme high or low end priced sales.
Clients often ask, “Where are we now compared to the Great Recession…?”. These charts offer a solid reference for that conversation. In this instance, the starting point for the trend line is 2006, but, of course, where the trend line commences will affect its outcome…If the charts had started at 2009, the trend would be more upwards at present than is shown here.
As this is written, post-election Nov 2016 through Feb 15, 2017, sales have picked up considerably and are decidedly on an upward trajectory.
Click chart to see additional breakdown chartsfor Aspen and SMV by property types.
“Flip Job” Examples: See recent Before/After redevelopmentin the new Flip Jobs Sectionnear the bottom of the Menu Bar on the left. These are properties that have been recently or are currently in the process of redevelopment for re-sale. This post is updated (01/04/17) as additional re-sale properties come on the market at significantly higher prices.
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Market Activity Week 8, February 19 – 26, 2017
Aspen Snowmass real estate weekly sales and under contract activity appears below for all Aspen, Snowmass Village, Brush Cr Village, Woody Creek and Old Snowmass properties over $250,000 excluding fractionals in the upper Roaring Fork Valley. As the MLS links below expire after 30 days, photos and written descriptions of select closed properties (those with excellent photography) are posted here to preserve an archive of sold market activity. Scroll down the page for home photos and details of weekly sales and under contract / pending Aspen properties in the past 4 weeks. For earlier dates, use the down arrow to quickly find blog archives by year and date to 2008. Or useSearchEstinAspenin the menu bar to search by topic, address, subdivision, complex, date, etc. If it’s about Aspen real estate, the information should be here.
Closed (6):MLS#s 142360, 123936, 140077, 144676, 144756, 146826.This link is valid until 3/28/2017.
Under Contract/Pending (14):MLS#s 139558, 140993, 141615, 141788, 142777, 144524, 144795, 145398, 145843, 145868, 146706, 146979, 147537, 147577.This link is valid until 3/28/2017.
Aspen Snowmass Solds Last Week:
Recent Estin Report tweets on Aspen Real Estate
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Disclaimer: The statements made in The Estin Report and on Aspen broker Tim Estin’s blog represent the opinions of the author and should not be relied upon exclusively to make real estate decisions. A potential buyer and/or seller is advised to make an independent investigation of the market and of each property before deciding to purchase or to sell. To the extent the statements made herein report facts or conclusions taken from other sources, the information is believed by the author to be reliable, however, the author makes no guarantee concerning the accuracy of the facts and conclusions reported herein. Information concerning particular real estate opportunities can be requested from Tim Estin at970.309.6163or byemail.The Estin Report is copyrighted 2017 and all rights reserved. Use is permitted subject to the following attribution with a live link to the source:“The Estin Reporton Aspen Real Estate.”
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