The Estin Report - Aspen, Colorado
The Estin Report - Aspen, Colorado The Estin Report - Aspen, Colorado The Estin Report - Aspen, Colorado

  Estin Report
 
Aspen real estate intelligence ©

  

Be informed, be educated, be advised by one the town's best real estate brokers according to local media. Aspen Sotheby's Int'l broker agent Tim Estin MBA, GRI authors the primary market guide for Aspen Snowmass real estate, homes for sale and property info - the #1 trusted Aspen real estate market resource.  Original objective reports and over 14,000 pages of current and archived content. Call Tim for expert guidance and counsel.

       Estin Report
     
Aspen real estate intelligence ©

EstinReportSeal 125res 175x175

Be informed, be educated, be advised by one the town's best real estate brokers according to local media. Aspen Sotheby's Int'l broker agent Tim Estin MBA, GRI authors the primary market guide for Aspen Snowmass real estate, homes for sale and property info - the #1 trusted Aspen real estate market resource. Original reports and over 14,000 pages of current and archived content. For expert guidance and counsel, please call or txt 970.309.6163.

Tim Estin

Tim Estin MBA, GRI
970.309.6163 cell + text

 



Broker Associate
Aspen Snowmass Sotheby's
International Real Estate
300 S.Spring St #100
Aspen, CO 81611

 

Aspen, CO
Mountain Standard Time 
(MST)

 

Estin Report

Mid-Year 2017

Aspen Real Estate

 

"Aspen real estate
is in turn-a-round

mode from a dismal
2016 when global

uncertainty curtailed
buyers' appetite for
luxury high end

2nd home purchases.

Post-election 2016,
an upper-end

Aspen real estate
recovery is in

full bloom. "


Read more...

 

July 2017
Aspen Real Estate
Snapshot

Bottom Line:

 

The Aspen market
continues to be
in hyper-sales
territory. Activity
is and feels
super-charged.
Add to that
momentum, early
August is the
time when buyers
typically get real
estate focused with
summer's ending in
sight. This is the
busiest time of year.
We should see a
steady stream of
offers and under
contracts now
through the end
of September.

Read more...

 

 

(See Interest Rate Historical Chart

since 1790 and

Consumer Price Calculator)

 

 

 

The Estin Report - Aspen, Colorado
The Estin Report - Aspen, Colorado
The Estin Report - Aspen, Colorado

Current Reports

 

   This Section contains current Estin Reports for 2017. Prior reports and monthly snapshots are archived in the Past Reports section. The reports are:  Half Year and/or Quarterly Reports: State of the Aspen Snowmass Real Estate Market released every half year and/or quarterly; Monthly Market Snapshots: Aspen Snowmass Real Estate (monthly stats, statistics) released on or near the 1st Monday of each month; Weekly Blog: Aspen Snowmass Weekly Sales and Market Activity posted every Monday morning at Tim Estin's AspenRealEstateBlog.

 

Estin Report July 2017 Aspen Snowmass Real Estate Market Snapshot

Released Mon Aug 8, 2017 v2

 

080717 Estin Report July 2017 Mos Snap Aspen Real Estate Sales v2 590w96Res

 

July 2017
Aspen and Snowmass Village
Real Estate Snapshot

(Click link above for full 10 Pg PDF
with detailed charts and tables for Aspen and Snowmass Village
sales and sales by neighborhoods.)

 

080717 Estin Report July 2017 MosSnap Aspen Real Estate InventorySales v2 5902 96res


Bottom Line

The Aspen market continues to be in hyper-sales territory. Activity is and feels super-charged. Add to that momentum, early August is the time when buyers typically get real estate focused with summer's ending in sight. This is the busiest time of year. We should see a steady stream of offers and under contracts now through the end of September.

The Aspen market is bifurcated: there's inside the roundabout and there's outside. Aspen’s most coveted neighborhoods - Central Core, West End, and Red Mountain - are experiencing robust sales at record prices. But it's a different world outside the roundabout. There is a significant discrepancy in what buyers are willing to pay inside versus outside. It's hard, if not impossible, to recall in the past 40-50 years such a significant separation, or divergence, because there has always been an Aspen buyer who sought being 'further out' of Aspen's downtown. The point of coming to Aspen used to be to get away from it all. Not anymore. Our shopping, our arts and our cultural infrastructure have become so successful that everyone it seems wants to be in the center of human activity rather than out in the mountains. (For specific neighborhood sales activity in July and in the past 3 months, refer to pages 7 and 9 of the Snapshot.)

And as new residential development in downtown Aspen has been banned in the revised City Land Use Code effective Mar 2017, peripheral areas to the Core with good walkability into town and easy public transportation options are experiencing much stronger sales than usual.

Value buyers should consider:

o Main Street, Aspen which has at least 5 homes or condos for sale at an approximate 45 - 50% discount to the Central Core average home price per sq ft of $2,067 sq ft.
o Maroon Creek, Aspen Highlands, West Buttermilk
o Starwood/McLain Flats area with drop-dead beautiful high mountain views where the average home sale was $916 sq ft between May - July 2017.
o Woody Creek and Old Snowmass - long considered rarified, beautiful, more rustic locations and expensive - also represent suprisingly good value.


For more substance and values, please contact me directly.

Key Metrics:

Aspen single family homes

- Sales of homes over $10M are up 133% over last year, 14 through July 17 YTD versus 4 through July 2016 YTD.
- Aspen single family home sales are up 259% year over year, 61 sales through July 17 YTD versus 17 sales through Juy 2016 YTD.
- The average Aspen home sales price per sq ft is $1,565 sq ft through July 17 YTD; in Snowmass Village, it's $447 sq ft. For perspective, for both property types, condos and homes, it was approximately $1,000 sq ft in Aspen during 3-4 years of the Great Recession.
-The median Aspen home sales price in July '17 was $9.45M. There were no home sales in July '16, but in July 2015, the median price was $5.87M
- Listing inventory of Aspen homes for sale has fallen 17% to (175) homes for sale in Juy 2017 versus (211) the same time last year.

 

Aspen condos

- Aspen condo sales are up 39% year over year, 85 sales through July 17 YTD versus 61 sales through Juy 2016 YTD.
- The average Aspen condo sales price per sq ft was $1,390 sq ft through July 17 YTD; in Snowmass Village its $633 sq ft.
-The median Aspen condo sales price in July '17 was $785K versus July 2016 of $1.59M.
- Listing inventory of condos for sale has fallen 42% to (144) condos for sale in Juy 2017 versus (250) the same time last year.


Listing Inventory

- While sales are up considerably for the year through July 2017 YTD, Aspen's listing inventory for all property types for sale is down -30% to 366 listings in July 2017 from 525 in July 2016

 

 

July 2017 Market Stats Breakdown for Aspen Only *


Aspen condo sales July 2017
Unit Sales: +11% (10) in July ‘17 from (9) in July ‘16
Dollar Sales: -6% $16M in July ‘17 from $17M in July ‘16
Inventory Active Listings: -42% (144) in July ‘17 from (250) in July ‘16

Aspen condo sales YTD
Unit Sales: +39% (85) in July ‘17 from (61) in July ‘16
Dollar Sales: +29% $175M in July ‘17 from $135M in July ‘16
Inventory Active Listings: -20% (280) in July ‘17 from (349) in July ‘16

Aspen Single family home sales July 2016
Unit Sales: +100% (8) in July ‘17 from (0) in July ‘16
Dollar Sales: +100% $67M in July ‘17 from $0M in July ‘16
Inventory Active Listings: -17% (175) in July ‘17 from (211) in July ‘16

Aspen Single family home sales YTD
Unit Sales: +259% (61) in July ‘17 from (17) in July ‘16
Dollar Sales: +290% $432M in July ‘17 from $111M in July ‘16
Inventory Active Listings: 0% (272) in July ‘17 from (274) in July ‘16


* Typically, the Aspen market represents 70-75% of the total combined Aspen Snowmass Village real estate marketplace.

 

Links to July 2017 Aspen and Snowmass Village Sold Property Photos and Details

Aspen July 2017 Closed Properties (18).   This link is valid until 9/1/2017.

Snowmass Village July 2017 Closed Properties (5)This link is valid until 9/1/2017.

Vacant Lots July 2017 Closed Properties (2)This link is valid until 9/1/2017.

 

Disclaimer: The statements made in The Estin Report and on Aspen broker Tim Estin's blog represent the opinions of the author and should not be relied upon exclusively to make real estate decisions. A potential buyer and/or seller is advised to make an independent investigation of the market and of each property before deciding to purchase or to sell. To the extent the statements made herein report facts or conclusions taken from other sources, the information is believed by the author to be reliable, however, the author makes no guarantee concerning the accuracy of the facts and conclusions reported herein. Information concerning particular real estate opportunities can be requested from Tim Estin at 970.309.6163  or by email

The Estin Report is copyrighted 2017 and all rights reserved. Use is permitted subject to the following attribution with a live link to this website: "The Estin Report on Aspen Real Estate."

____________________________________________________________________________________

Estin Report June 2017 Aspen Snowmass Real Estate Market Snapshot


Released Mon July 10, 2017 v2.0

 

071017 Estin Report Jun 2017 Market Snapshot Aspen SMV Real Estate 96res 590w v2.0

 

June 2017
Aspen and Snowmass Village
Real Estate Snapshot

(Click table or link above for full 10 Pg PDF
with 
detailed charts and tables for Aspen and Snowmass Village
sales and sales by neighborhoods.)

Bottom Line

June 2017 has been the best June for Aspen real estate in the past 10 years. Dollar sales for properties selling over $10M are up over 125% year-to-date (YTD) and for all properties, sales are up 118% YTD. At the same time, inventory of available properties for sale is declining, down 30% in June ’17 year over year, which should create upward pressure on prices.

Read more ...

Estin Report May 2017: Aspen and Snowmass Village Real Estate Snapshot


Released June 4, 2016 v1.5

 

060217 EstinReport May2016 AspenRealEstate Snapshot 96dpi 590w

 
May 2017
Aspen and Snowmass Village
Real Estate Snapshot

 

 

 060217 EstinReport May2016 AspenRealEstate Snapshot Pg2 96dpi 590w

 

 

 

Click link for 10-Pg PDF

 

Bottom Line

There is a night and day difference between May 2017 and same time last year. The market appears to be firing on all cylinders heading into the summer selling season.

 

A statistic that says it all: there were (15) Aspen single family home sales in May 2017 versus (2) in May 2016, +650% (Pg 6).

 

Read more ...

Estin Report Mid-Year 2017: State of Aspen Real Estate

 

Released 06/08/17 v4.2 Executive summary and full report as PDF. The 32-page report is also available in a print edition at downtown Aspen kiosks (Information Center opposite Paradise Bakery), at Sothebys offices at 415 E. Hyman in the middle of the Aspen Mall, 300 Spring St opposite the Aspen Art Museum and at the Pitkin County Airport magazine kiosk in the luggage area.

 

Estin Report Q117andYr 2016AspenRealEstate v4.1 cover 96 350w

 

Full report link as PDF


Executive Summary

Aspen real estate is in turn-a-round mode from a dismal 2016 when global uncertainty curtailed buyers' appetite for luxury high end second home purchases. Post-election 2016 through Q117, an upper-end Aspen real estate recovery is in full bloom.

 

Sales over $10M

For 2017 YTD through April 30th, there were 5 property sales over $10M versus 1 sale over $10M during the same period in 2016 - a Monarch on the Park PH condo that sold at $15M/$4,276 sq ft on 2/5/16. Of these 5 sales, (2) were over $20M ea. at an avg. $2,431 sq ft; (3) were between $10-20M at an avg. $2,056 sq ft. If the property is in town and priced over $10M, it should sell above $2,000 sq ft; if out of town, there's approximately a 15-30% discount for these luxury properties.

Stats: 2017 YTD (Jan 1 - April 30, 2017)

Aspen Single family home sales thru Apr YTD
Unit Sales: +127% (25) thru April ‘17 from (11) thru April ’16
Dollar Sales: +239% $192M thru April ‘17 from $57M thru April ‘16

Aspen condo sales thru Apr YTD
Unit Sales: +13% (43) thru April ‘17 from (38) thru April ‘16
Dollar Sales: +11% $94M thru April ‘17 from $84M thru April ‘16

SMV Single family home sales thru Apr YTD
Unit Sales: -8% (11) thru April ‘17 from (12) thru April ‘16
Dollar Sales: -17% $41M thru April ‘17 from $50M thru April ‘16

SMV condo sales thru Apr YTD
Unit Sales: -6% (29) thru April ‘17 from (31) thru April ‘16
Dollar Sales: -5% $29M thru April ‘17 from $31M thru April ‘16

But not everyone is happy. Reasons: 1) Although Snowmass Village, representing 20-30% of our total combined market at any given time, survived 2016 relatively unscathed - its sales were fairly even with the prior year and it suffered significantly less in 2016 than Aspen - the resort was down mildly in Q117; 2) The surging Aspen market activity grabbing local head-lines these days is very specific: location specific, property specific, style/design specific, property age specific...and then, there’s inside the roundabout (good) and there’s outside (ho-hum). Not all are celebrating.

If one is prepared to pay premium prices and pour money into prescient developer’s pockets who saw the lack of new-built product 2-4 years ago and strategized the redevelopment of prime-located residential properties coming to fruition now, seek out this concentration of in-town, new-built product. Justifiably so.

If one is looking for motivated sellers and good-to-great values in stunningly beautiful settings just 5-15 minutes beyond downtown Aspen, play the contrarian hand and re-discover and embrace the areas and neighborhoods so favored by prior famous and not-so-famous Aspen settlers.

 

What’s Trending

Read more ...

Estin Report April 2017: Aspen Snowmass Village Real Estate Snapshot

 

Released Wed. May 3, 2017 v2.21

 

050117 Estin Report Apr 2017 Aspen SMV Real Estate Market Snapshot Pg1 96res 590w


April 2017 Aspen and Snowmass
Real Estate Snapshot
(Click link above for full 10 Pg PDF with
detailed charts and tables for Aspen and Snowmass Village)

 

Bottom Line

Aspen real estate is in turn-a-round mode from a dismal 2016 when global uncertainty curtailed buyers' appetite for luxury high end 2nd home purchases.

Post-election 2016, an upper-end Aspen real estate recovery is in full bloom.

In April 2017, for the combined Aspen/Snowmass Village market, the number of units sold is up +25%, from 28 last year to 35 this year. The number of properties that went under contract in April 2017 was up +20%, 25 last year to 30 this year.  Under contracts are viewed as an indicator of future activity.  


But the surging market activity grabbing local headlines is very specific: location specific, property specific, style/design specific, property age specific... There’s inside the roundabout and there’s outside. Not everyone’s partying at present.

Read more ...

New Charts: Updated through Q1 2017 - Historic Pace of Aspen and Snowmass Village Dollar and Unit Sales by Homes, Condos and Vacant Land / Lots

 

Released 04/03/17 v2.0

Here are new charts to be updated every quarter. They are: the historic pace of dollar and unit sales since 2006 with trend lines for Aspen and Snowmass Village (SMV) separately by: 1) all properties combined; 2) single family homes; 3) condos; 4) vacant land / lots. (Fractionals, with the exception of extreme sales, are not included.)

As the unit sales drop-off in the 2nd Half 2007 so foreshadowed the Great Recession, sales velocity or pace, whether by dollar or unit sales, is extremely useful to consider.

While many real estate professionals use dollar sales as the single metric for sales performance (it often looks 'better'), unit sales are a better measure of market activity. Dollar sales can be skewed disproportionately by extreme high or low end sales.

Clients often ask, "Where are we now compared to the Great Recession...?". These charts offer a solid reference for that conversation. In this instance, the starting point for the trend line is 2006, but, of course, where the trend line commences will affect its outcome...If the charts had started at 2009, the trend would be more upwards at present than is shown here.


040317 Q1 2017 Estin Report Aspen Real Estate Pace of Unit Dollar Sales since 2006 590w

 

 Click charts to enlarge and for similar Aspen or Snowmass Village dollar and unit sales charts
by property types: single famiy homes, condos, and vacant land / lots.

 

040317 Q1 2017 Estin Report SMV Real Estate Pace of Unit Dollar Sales since 2006 590w

 

For these and additional Historic Dollar and Unit Sales charts by Quarter for
Aspen and Snowmass Village separately by single family homes, condos and vacant land / lots,
click the respective chart above or these links: Aspen or Snowmass Village PDF's.

 

Disclaimer: The statements made in The Estin Report and on Aspen broker Tim Estin's blog represent the opinions of the author and should not be relied upon exclusively to make real estate decisions. They do not represent the opinions or statements of Aspen Snowmass Sothebys International Real Estate. A potential buyer and/or seller is advised to make an independent investigation of the market and of each property before deciding to purchase or to sell. To the extent the statements made herein report facts or conclusions taken from other sources, the information is believed by the author to be reliable, however, the author makes no guarantee concerning the accuracy of the facts and conclusions reported herein. Information concerning particular real estate opportunities can be requested from Tim Estin at 970.309.6163 or by email.

The Estin Report is copyrighted 2017 and all rights reserved. Use is permitted subject to the following attribution with a live link to the source: "The Estin Report on Aspen Real Estate."

_____________________________________________

 

Estin Report Mar 2017: Aspen Snowmass Real Estate Snapshot


Released Apr 3, 2017 v2.0

 

Bottom Line Mar 2017 Snapshot (End of 1st Quarter 2017: Jan 1 - Mar 31) Excerpt:

 

 

040317 Estin Report AspSMV Q117 and 2016Yr Performance Comparison 590w 72res

Click tables to enlarge

 

040317 estin report mar 2017 summary snapshot aspen real estate 3 590w

 

Mar 2017 Aspen and Snowmass
Real Estate Snapshot

(Click Table above for full 10 Pg PDF with
detailed charts and tables for Aspen and Snowmass Village)

For year-to-date (YTD), Jan 1 through Mar 31, 2017, the total combined Aspen Snowmass Village market is up 22% in dollar sales to $224M from $184M same time last year and up 11% in unit sales with (78) sales in 2017 versus (70) last year-to-date.

The number of under contract properties for the combined Aspen Snowmass Village market is up 121% to (35) in Mar 2017 versus (24) same time last year.

Under Contracts are used as an indicator of future activity when compared to the prior year.

 

Read more ...

Estin Report Feb 2017: Aspen Snowmass Real Estate Snapshot

 

Released 03/06/16 v2.0

 

030517 EstinReport Feb 2017 Aspen Real Estate Market Snapshot 530w72res

Feb 2017 Aspen and Snowmass
Real Estate Snapshot

(Click Table above for full 10 Pg PDF
with detailed charts and tables)


Bottom Line

Total Aspen Snowmass Village Real Estate sCombined

For year-to-date (YTD), Jan 1 through Feb 28, 2017, the total combined Aspen Snowmass Village real estate market is up 19% in dollar sales to $139M from $117M same time last year and no change in unit sales with (43) in 2017 versus (43) last year.

The number of under contract properties for the combined Aspen Snowmass Village market is up 52% to (35) in Feb 2017 versus (23) same time last year.

 

Under Contracts are used as an indicator of future activity when compared to the prior year.

 

Read more ...

Estin Report Jan 2017: Aspen Snowmass Real Estate Snapshot

Released Feb.10, 2017 v2.2

 

020917 Estin Report Jan 2017 Aspen SMV Real Estate Market Snapshot v1.5 590w96res

 

Jan 2017 Aspen and Snowmass Village
Real Estate Snapshot


(Click Table above for full 10 Pg PDF
with detailed charts and tables)


Bottom Line

The Jan 2017 Aspen real estate market* is up 33% in unit sales and 117% in dollar volume over Jan 2016. But in Jan ‘16, the stock market was plummeting and the local real estate market went deep south. The year-to-year comparison is from a low base last year. Current sales are approximately 50% better than Jan 2016 and 50% less than a sizzling Jan 2015.  Performance-wise we’re in the middle of the past two years . 

Post Nov.‘16 election sales finally started picking up relative to the dismal 1st Half of 2016 that was caused by paralyzing political uncertainty. Sales continue to be on the rise now.  

 

Of particular note, in Jan 2017 the number of under contracts (UC's)/Pendings exceeded Jan 2016 by 142%, (29) now versus (12) then. UC's - properties that are have gone under contract but not yet (and may not ) closed - are viewed as an indicator of future activity.


*In Jan 2017, Aspen unit and dollar sales represent 67% of total Aspen and SMV combined sales.Typically, they are closer to 70-80% of the total combined sales.

 

Read more ...

Estin Report: 2nd Quarter and 1st Half 2016 State of the Aspen Real Estate Market


The full report with narrative and charts, tables, photos was released July 20, 2016 v6.6   The Executive Summary is below. Click the report cover
 to the full 28 page report PDF version. The print edition is available at kiosks around town, at Sothebys/415 Hyman Mall, at Sothebys/300 S Spring St opposite the new Aspen Art Museum and at the airport.

 

072016 Q2 H1 2015 Estin Report State of the Aspen Market cover final 96Res 350wX457

 

Click cover above for full 28 page report PDF

(To read, Adobe pdf reader is required. Adobe download here)

 

Executive Summary

This report breaks down both the 2nd Quarter and 1st Half 2016 Aspen Snowmass real estate market into various categories and neighborhoods. The goal is to provide an overview and analysis of the overall market and various sectors in as much detail as possible.

070916 EstinReport H12016 AspenSMV Real Estate Summary Full Pg 7 560w 96 dpi V2

Click table to enlarge

 

070916 EstinReport H116 AspenRealEstateHistoricalComparison 550w X72dpi

 

Click table to enlarge

 

In the 1st Half of 2016, the combined Aspen Snowmass real estate market turned down suddenly and sharply. The total dollar volume of sales fell 43% from $700M in H1 2015 to $396M in H1 2016. Units sales, the more reliable indicator of market activity, dropped 38% from (230) sales in H1 2015 to (143) sales in H1 2016.


The Aspen real estate market alone, typically accounting for 70-80% of the total combined Aspen Snowmass marketplace but 66% in H1 2016, experienced its worst first half year since H1 2010 in unit sales and its worst in dollars sales since H1 2009 - periods in the grip of the economic crisis and indeed the bleakest of the bleak. Aspen dollar sales dropped 56% from $530M in H115 to $231M in H116: units sales fell 51% from (148) sales in H115 to (72) sales in H116; inventory of listings for sale increased 10% from (579) properties for sale to (635) during the same period. This was the first inventory increase in seven years since 2009.

 

The 1st Half 2016 market performance is a stunning reversal from the sizzling market of 2015 when sales in a number of categories and neighborhoods were the best of the past ten years. The past 6 month slowdown combined with the increase of active listings for sale is a recipe for prices to fall.

 

At present, the market has shifted to the favor of buyers.

 

Read more ...

 

 

Tim Estin | www.EstinAspen.com | 970.309.6163 | 300 S.Spring St | Opposite the Aspen Art Museum

The Estin Report - Aspen, Colorado
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