Breaking down the statistics illuminates further trends.
ASPEN REAL ESTATE — In the upper valley market, from Aspen to Old Snowmass and including Snowmass Village, the number of sales—235—is even with last year through September, according to Tim Estin, a broker with Coldwell Banker Mason Morse who does his own monthly and quarterly reports. Overall dollar volume is down 12 percent, mainly due to 30 percent fewer big-ticket sales this year, which Estin claims accounts for almost the entire dollar volume difference between this year and last. Still, overall third-quarter sales were strong, up 25 percent in dollars ($240.4 million) and 13 percent in unit sales (81) compared to the period of July 1 to Sept. 30 last year, according to Estin. The past few years have started out strong and sputtered to a close, but this year had the strongest third quarter of the past four years, Estin reported. A particularly strong segment is Aspen single-family home sales. Aspen (which for Estin includes Woody Creek and Old Snowmass) accounted for 83 percent of the overall dollar volume in the third quarter, and Aspen single-family home sales accounted for 56 percent of that dollar volume. Aspen homes sales were up 46 percent in dollar volume and 22 percent in number of sales in the third quarter. And the surge appears to have continued in October—Estin recently reported 15 sales of single-family homes in Aspen compared to six in October 2011. Commensurate with this was a 3 percent increase in the median home price ($3.8 million) and a 13 percent increase in the price per square foot ($1,013) in the third quarter. “Both metrics … can be seen as positive signs of home price stabilization,” Estin wrote.
By Catherine Lutz, Nov. 7, 12 ABJ
Snowmass Base Village
ASPEN—September was the strongest month of 2012 so far in real estate transactions in Pitkin County, both in dollar volume and number of sales, according to the latest report from Land Title Guarantee Company.
The $232.4 million worth of real estate that changed hands is close to the dollar volume of September 2006, a high-water-mark year—but it also includes the $90 million Snowmass Base Village transaction, which closed at the end of the month. Without the year’s priciest transaction, dollar volume would be only slightly higher than the $137.7 million that changed hands in September 2011.
There were 76 real estate sales in September, more than any other month in 2012, but also 11.6 percent fewer than last September’s 86 transactions. September is typically one of the most popular months for closings, after the summer showing season.
But despite these caveats, recent real estate statistics reflect what many local industry experts see as a slowly but steadily improving overall market.
“Astute investors or people interested in second homes may not feel a sense of urgency yet, but they feel good about where the market is going and are slowly but surely taking a more intense look at Aspen,” which is still a buyer’s market, said Brian Hazen, a broker with Coldwell Banker Mason Morse. Hazen has noticed what may be a growing trend of more showings this off-season—perhaps because it’s not as jam-packed with events and activities as the winter and summer are getting—that might translate into more sales in the following months, particularly after the election this year.
Breaking down the statistics illuminates further trends.
In the upper valley market, from Aspen to Old Snowmass and including Snowmass Village, the number of sales—235—is even with last year through September, according to Tim Estin, a broker with Coldwell Banker Mason Morse who does his own monthly and quarterly reports. Overall dollar volume is down 12 percent, mainly due to 30 percent fewer big-ticket sales this year, which Estin claims accounts for almost the entire dollar volume difference between this year and last.
Still, overall third-quarter sales were strong, up 25 percent in dollars ($240.4 million) and 13 percent in unit sales (81) compared to the period of July 1 to Sept. 30 last year, according to Estin. The past few years have started out strong and sputtered to a close, but this year had the strongest third quarter of the past four years, Estin reported.
A particularly strong segment is Aspen single-family home sales. Aspen (which for Estin includes Woody Creek and Old Snowmass) accounted for 83 percent of the overall dollar volume in the third quarter, and Aspen single-family home sales accounted for 56 percent of that dollar volume. Aspen homes sales were up 46 percent in dollar volume and 22 percent in number of sales in the third quarter. And the surge appears to have continued in October—Estin recently reported 15 sales of single-family homes in Aspen compared to six in October 2011.
Commensurate with this was a 3 percent increase in the median home price ($3.8 million) and a 13 percent increase in the price per square foot ($1,013) in the third quarter. “Both metrics … can be seen as positive signs of home price stabilization,” Estin wrote.
Meanwhile, condo sales are up 30 percent while dollar volume is down 26 percent in Aspen, mainly because a large number of smaller condos sold in the third quarter of 2012, after the larger, newer, and more luxurious condos were snapped up in 2011.
Hazen sees the uptick in entry-level condo activity, along with a continuing interest in the higher-end homes still on the market, as an indicator of the overall health of market.
“The broader the activity, the healthier the market is,” said Hazen. “It’s not top heavy, nd it’s not bottom heavy. I like balance.”
In Snowmass Village, year-to-date real estate sales are down 36 percent in dollar volume (at $83 million) and 16 percent in number of sales (52) compared to 2011, according to Estin’s statistics, which are derived from an analysis of the MLS (Multiple Listing Service). The numbers are even further off the peak of the market there, between 2005 and 2007, when excitement surrounded the development of Base Village. “As the excitement escalated, so did the prices,” Estin wrote. “Then the crisis hit and it all unraveled.”
But Estin and others believe there are signs of optimism in Snowmass, pointing mainly to the recent buyback of Base Village and the massive redevelopment of the Silvertree Hotel into a Westin. And with prices off 40 to 50 percent from the market peak, “the best buyer values in the Aspen area are here,” Estin wrote.
Two final factors may be indicative of an upward-trending market: a declining inventory of properties on the market and a surge in vacant land sales. Estin found that lot sales jumped 92 percent through the end of September, from 12 in 2011 to 23 so far in 2012. Because there is little inventory left of brand-new and/or spec construction, new homes built in the next couple year will be desirable and likely command premium prices.
“Buying land and building new offers a reasonable hedge against continued market uncertainty and against the slow pace of an improving marketplace,” Estin wrote. “Typically, when land sales start to pick up, it is an important marker of a market transition, a tipping point.”
Looking at things more broadly, Hazen points out that the Aspen area continues to be attractive to buyers because it offers a broad package of recreational, cultural, and intellectual attractions, and it is made even more unique by its emphasis on growth control and historical preservation. Noting that he is more comfortable with the incremental improvements of late than the sharp rises and “unhealthy speculation” of the mid-2000s, “I just believe in the long-term health of Aspen,” he said.
Link to article
