Q1 & Mar 2024 Aspen Snowmass Real Estate Market Report

v2 The Estin Report publishes a 10-page monthly Aspen real estate market “Snapshot” on or near the 1st Monday of each month. The Snapshot presents a “bottom line” summary and raw sales data of the subject month and YTD performance for residential real estate sales in Aspen and Snowmass. There are three sections: 1) Total combined Aspen Snowmass Village Market; 2) The Aspen Market; 3) The Snowmass Village Market. It features charts, tables and 30-day live links to photos and details of sold properties and compares the subject month to the same time in prior years. The Monthly Snapshot is the only Aspen and Snowmass property sales information widely published in a timely and consistent manner early each month.

Bottom Line: Q1 2024 had the 2nd best sales performance for the combined Aspen and Snowmass Village real estate market of any first quarter since at least 2018.

For the Aspen only market (does not include Snowmass Village), the median 1st Quarter 2024 (3-months: Jan, Feb, Mar) sold price of an Aspen single family home was $11.9M/$3,317 sq ft versus $11.67/$2,624 sq ft same time last year; for an Aspen condo, the median sold price was $2.7M/$3,267 sq ft now versus $2.7M/$2,842 sq ft then.

In Snowmass Village, the median 1st quarter 2024 sold price of a SMV single family home was $6.69M/$1,130 sq ft versus $4.9/$1,361 sq ft Q123; the median sold price of an SMV condo in Q124 was $1.79M/$1,706 sq ft versus $1.16M/$1,401 sq ft in Q123.

Reasons why the market is so active:

1) There’s a general sense of confidence as the nation continues to experience steady progress on inflation, a record setting stock market, strength in the jobs market and wage increases.

2) Impending Land Use Code Changes = More Restrictive: The influential Pitkin County Growth Committee recommendations were accepted by the Board of County Commissioners (BOCC) in their entirety in summer 2023. (Disclosure: I am a member of this advisory committee.) The first substantial change approved in the Land Use Code (LUC) in Nov 2024 was Pitkin County house size reduction to 9,250 sq ft from 15,000 sq ft. It is likely that amount will be lowered to 8,750 sq ft sometime this year. Other significant changes to come: allowable “free” sub-grade sq ft to be limited to 1,000 sq ft with the purchase of a TDR (Transferrable Development Rights); TDR allocations are proposed to be changed from an existing (1) TDR worth 2,500 sq ft to be divvied up into (5) 500 sq ft TDR increments; changes in allowable energy usage and REMP fees (Renewable Energy Mitigation Program); outdoor heating and snow melt systems, swimming pool restrictions or prohibitions … These and more LUC changes are in the pipeline for the 2nd Half 2024.

3) Snowmass Village (SMV) sales continue to be on fire. The newer Snowmass Base Village with new condo product coming on line steadily since 2018-2019 continues to offer 1-2 new condominium projects about every two years and that gets sold out at pre-construction prices. SMV is selling at about 40-60% discount to Aspen and much of this is brand new condo product whereas Aspen offers little to none due to restrictive land use regulations.

4) Acceptance (or Resignation)…That the increase in property prices from pre-Covid is likely not to roll back, barring unforeseen circumstances, and that the huge price increases in construction, labor, materials and transportation costs are not going to retrench although the rate of those increases has slowed.

However, the Ukraine and Israeli-Hamas conflicts are obviously unsettling and horrific. Much can happen – the unknown – to adversely affect our real estate values.

I believe if one’s timeline is conservatively 5 years or more, history has shown that Aspen real estate has been a proven safe harbor and a profitable diversification play for the past 70 years.

Unlike a paper asset, in Aspen real property owners get “double” the return: 1) Realization of time-proven, time-tested appreciation; 2) Enjoyment of the physical investment in a uniquely beautiful environment with world class sports, art and culture.

Select charts and tables from the Mar & Q1 2024 report:

Aspen Single Family Homes 3-Mos Median Price: