Released Oct 3, 2016 v2.2
Click table for Sep 2016 Aspen Real Estate Snapshot (10 Pg PDF)
Bottom Line
One would have expected this September, of all months, to be better than the rest. Sept is typically the most active sales month of the year as summer ‘lookers’ become fall buyers in order to secure and get their new properties ready for winter.
Not to be this year.
Aspen Single Family Homes: In Sept 2016, Aspen single family home unit sales fell -43% with 12 sales this Sep from 21 same time last year; dollar sales were off – 58% with $68M in sales this Sept versus $160M a year ago. Year to date, unit home sales are down -59% to 34 this Sept from 82 last year; dollar home sales are off -62% to $220M from $587M last year.
Aspen Condos: Sept 2016 Aspen Condo sales are off significantly but not as much as the home market: unit sales fell -36% with 16 sales this Sept from 25 same time last year; dollar sales were off -28% with $36M in sales this Sept versus $49M a year ago. Year to date, condo unit sales are down -28% to 95 this Sept from 132 last year; condo dollar sales are off -22% to $204M from $263M last year.
Sales over $10M: Sales of Aspen properties over $10M have plummeted: in Sept 2016, there was 1 sale versus 6 the same time last year, -83%; year to date, there have been 8 sales this year versus 23 last year, -80%. Dollar sales in this category have plunged commensurately. Most real estate prognosticators use unit sales as the critical ‘activity’ metric, not dollar sales.
Prices: Prices are coming down as sellers seasonally downward adjust to post-summer, pre-winter realties and greater motivation sets in. An average 5-10% discount to ask price is fairly common, and in some cases more. On pages 7 and 9 of this Market Snapshot, you can identify the location/neighborhood of sales and the property type for average sales to ask and original price discounts.
Why is this happening:Everyone is asking. What’s going on? …It isn’t just Aspen.The high-end luxury market is pretty much getting decimated everywhere: the Hamptons are reportedly off by 50% this year, Miami is way off, NYC high end has crashed (developer inventory surplus cited).
There is a pervasive sense of uncertainty over any number of things: first and foremost, the US election – fear of either electoral outcome; disarray in the oil markets effecting (or not?) Aspen’s significant Texas market; a slowing global economy linked especially to China’s slower growth and trade imbalances; Aspen’s largest foreign buyer segment from Brazil and Australia deraileddue to, respectively, a weakened economy and a plunge in commodity prices; Brexit; Mosquitoes; Terrorism…Ambient fear – the looking over of one’s shoulder – what are we missing that’s going to blow up, 2008 crisis-like, all over again? Who knows ..?
All of which have combined to take many buyers out of the market. Yet the time of maximum uncertainty is very often the best time to get into the market.
*This summary focuses on the Aspen market as Aspen historically accounts for approximately 70-75% of the total Aspen and Snowmass village combined market. The Market Snapshot breaks out the Aspen and Snowmass Village markets separately and in detail.
Links to Sept 2016 Aspen and Snowmass Village Sold Property Photos and Details
Aspen Sept 2016 Closed Properties (28).This link is valid until 11/2/2016.
Snowmass Village Sept 2016 Closed Properties (10).This link is valid until 11/2/2016.
Disclaimer: The statements made in The Estin Report and on Aspen broker Tim Estin’s blog represent the opinions of the author and should not be relied upon exclusively to make real estate decisions. They do not represent the opinions or statements of Aspen Snowmass Sothebys International Real Estate. A potential buyer and/or seller is advised to make an independent investigation of the market and of each property before deciding to purchase or to sell. To the extent the statements made herein report facts or conclusions taken from other sources, the information is believed by the author to be reliable, however, the author makes no guarantee concerning the accuracy of the facts and conclusions reported herein. Information concerning particular real estate opportunities can be requested from Tim Estin at970.309.6163or by email. The Estin Report is copyrighted 2016 and all rights reserved. Use is permitted subject to the following attribution with a live link to the source: “The Estin Reporton Aspen Real Estate.”
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