Released 12/28/16 v2.51
Click table above for Nov 2016 Aspen Real Estate Snapshot (10 Pg PDF)
Bottom Line
Aspen sales of homes priced over $10M have plummeted -62% in unit sales through Nov 2016 YTD from (26) in Nov ’15 YTD to (10) in Nov 2016 YTD. They have fallen -65% in dollar sales from $377M in Nov 2015 YTD to $132M this Nov 2016 YTD.
Aspen single family home Nov 2016 unit sales were even with the same time last year – the 1st month this year that home sales have not been worse than their comparable 2015 month.
Nov ’16 has been less ‘bad’ than Oct or Sep. The uncertainty of the election has passed, the “Trump Trade” has pushed the stock market to record highs and the financial markets are bullish. Historically, these are good omens for Aspen real estate.
For the past two years, the Aspen residential market is being driven by speculative activity in the form of a small handful of REIT type investment groups. In particular, these groups dominated buyer activity in 2015 and new-built home listings in 2016. There are approximately 20-25 brand new spec homes in various stages of construction with some having sold or under contract validating never-seen-before new pricing levels. From here, it’s trickle down to the benefit of many property owners.
At present, property valuations in the Aspen Core, HIstoric West End and newer homes on Red Mountain are rising with this tide. But it’s an exclusive club…In general, values in other neighborhoods are not experiencing the same level of interest and value boost.
The market is being investment driven, not consumer or user driven. This kind of big-money activity in these three neighborhhoods is pushing prices higher perceptually followed slowly by reality.
More in my 2016 year end report.
November 2016 Market Statistics Summary for Aspen Only *
Aspen condo sales November 2016
Unit Sales: -40% (9) in November ‘16 from (15) in November ‘15
Dollar Sales: -64% $18M in November ‘16 from $49M in November ‘15
Inventory Active Listings: +8% (153) in November ‘16 from (142) in November ‘15
Aspen condo sales YTD
Unit Sales: -27% (121) in November ‘16 YTD from (166) in November ‘15 YTD
Dollar Sales: -27% $251M in November ‘16 YTD from $344M in November ‘15 YTD
Inventory Active Listings: +8% (153) in November ‘16 YTD from (142) in November ‘15 YTD
Aspen Single family home sales November 2016
Unit Sales: 0% (8) in November ‘16 from (8) in November ‘15
Dollar Sales: +24% $58M in November ‘16 from $46M in November ‘15
Inventory Active Listings: +7% (160) in November ‘16 from (149) in November ‘15
Aspen Single family home sales YTD
Unit Sales: -51% (49) in November ‘16 YTD from (101) in November ‘15 YTD
Dollar Sales: -56% $311M in November ‘16 YTD from $710M in November ‘15 YTD
Inventory Active Listings: +7% (160) in November ‘16 YTD from (149) November ‘15 YTD
* Typically, the Aspen market represents 70-75% of the total combined Aspen Snowmass Village real estate marketplace.
Links to Nov 2016 Aspen and Snowmass Village Sold Property Photos and Details
Aspen Nov 2016 Closed Properties (17).This link is valid until 1/1/2017.
Snowmass Village Nov 2016 Closed Properties (7).This link is valid until 1/1/2017.
Vacant Lots Nov 2016 Closed Properties (1).This link is valid until 1/1/2017.
Disclaimer:The statements made in The Estin Report and on Aspen broker Tim Estin’s blog represent the opinions of the author and should not be relied upon exclusively to make real estate decisions. They do not represent the opinions or statements of Aspen Snowmass Sothebys International Real Estate. A potential buyer and/or seller is advised to make an independent investigation of the market and of each property before deciding to purchase or to sell. To the extent the statements made herein report facts or conclusions taken from other sources, the information is believed by the author to be reliable, however, the author makes no guarantee concerning the accuracy of the facts and conclusions reported herein. Information concerning particular real estate opportunities can be requested from Tim Estin at 970.309.6163 or by email. The Estin Report is copyrighted 2016 and all rights reserved. Use is permitted subject to the following attribution with a live link to the source: “TheEstin Reporton Aspen Real Estate.”
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