Oct. 20, 2009 – 3Q09 The Estin Report: State of the Aspen Snowmass Real Estate Market (July 1 – September 30, 2009)

Snowmass Condos (figures revised 12/06/2009)
The Snowmass market is moribund, but represents incredible opportunity if one believes, as I do, in Snowmass Base Village’s imminent resurrection. It is still destined in my eyes to become the “new” pre-eminent North American Family Ski Resort of the 21st Century, but it will just take longer than
originally planned.
– There were only (5) sales in 3Q09 versus (29) in 3Q08, an -83% drop in total units sold.
– Dollar sales volume was off -75% to $7.4M in 3Q09 from $29.6M in 3Q08.
– The average price of a Snowmass Condo was $1.49M in 3Q09 versus $1.019M in 3Q08, up +46% year over year. How to explain this? The average size of the (5) condos that sold was +84% larger at an average size of 1,777 sq ft in 3Q09 versus the average 967 sq ft size of units in 3Q08.
– The median price of a Snowmass Condo was $1.075M in 3Q09 versus $805K in 3Q08, up +34% year over year. Again, the size of the (5) units sold played the role in the uptick in median prices.
– % Sold Price to Original List Price*:The average Snowmass condo selling price closed at 65% of original list price (not ask price) in 3Q09 versus 97% of the original list price in 3Q08.

* Note: % Sold Price to Original List Price
     I am using % Sold Price to Original List as a barometer of where closing prices are settling because % Sold Price to Ask ask prices is too variable in this present sales climate to be reliable. Assuming an “original price” is roughly 10-12 months old or older, that price (even if the property was initially overpriced) represents a more stable pricing base with more data available from which to judge how far off we have come from those levels. If a property has come on the market in the past 270 days, since the beginning of the year, I would assume that its original list price is closer to a realistic selling price than a property listed before the economic crisis began in early Oct. 2008, although this is often NOT the case as well… Sellers are quite good at deceiving themselves: there are some sellers who are putting their properties on the market at 2007 peak prices shrugging off buyer and broker disbelief at their altered reality. The only explanation I have for this attitude is that they don’t really have to sell and are thinking, “Let’s just put it out there and see if we can get that one-in-a-million buyer who’s willing to pay full 2007 retail for our once-in-lifetime property.” I have heard many a buyer remark, “Only in your dreams.”